Goldman cuts forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2021 and 2022
A development employee climbs above a line of fencing on the web site of a giant public infrastructure reconstruction challenge of an elevated roadway and bridges in higher Manhattan in New York Metropolis, New York, U.S., April 22, 2021. REUTERS/Mike Segar
Oct 10 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs reduce its U.S. financial progress goal to five.6% for 2021 and to 4% for 2022 citing an anticipated decline in fiscal help by means of the tip of subsequent yr and a extra delayed restoration in client spending than beforehand anticipated.
The agency beforehand anticipated 5.7% gross home product (GDP) progress in 2021 and 4.4% progress in 2022, based on analysis launched on Sunday from authors together with its chief economist Jan Hatzius.
They pointed to a “longer lasting virus drag on virus-sensitive client providers” in addition to an expectation that semiconductor provide probably is not going to enhance till the primary half of 2022, delaying stock restocking till subsequent yr.
And on high of the near-term virus drag, additionally they count on spending on some providers and non-durable items to remain persistently beneath pre-pandemic tendencies particularly “if a shift to distant work leads to some employees spending much less general.”
On a quarterly foundation Goldman reduce each its fourth-quarter 2021 and first-quarter 2022 GDP estimates to 4.5% from 5% and shaved its second quarter 2022 estimate to 4% from 4.5% whereas lowering its third quarter estimate to three% from 3.5%.
Nonetheless, it elevated its fourth-quarter 2022 estimate to 1.75% from 1.5%.
Reporting by Sinéad Carew; Modifying by Lisa Shumaker
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